Jump to content


Photo

Brexit - your vote and why?


  • Please log in to reply
854 replies to this topic

#736 hummingbird

hummingbird

    Prodigy

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1927 posts
  • Member: 491056
    Joined: 25-July 12

Posted 12 November 2019 - 15:39

I'm just glad the Speaker doesn't represent my constituency. The fact that a UK constituency is deprived of a choice of candidates is an anomaly that really ought to be addressed. Surely an elected Speaker ought not to continue being a constituency MP, so that a general election with a choice of candidates can take place in the normal way in his/her constituency.

In practice constituents have the same problem if their MP turns out to be the PM or one of the major minister; he or she is less likely to be available to do constituency surgeries and be available to listen to your thoughts.

 

I hate to quibble(!) but it's actually not the same at all. The main parties by tradition do not contest the Speaker's seat, so unless s/he is beaten by an independent or minor party, s/he gets elected by default.  So any constituent who wanted to vote for one of the other main parties, is deprived of the opportunity to do so.  The PM, on the other hand, has to campaign for their seat in the normal way.  The PM and major ministers also have to ensure that they keep up their constituency duties if they want to keep their majority; whereas the Speaker, knowing that his/her seat will not be seriously contested, may feel less pressure to do so.


  • 0

#737 elemimele

elemimele

    Prodigy

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1325 posts
  • Member: 895612
    Joined: 17-July 16

Posted 12 November 2019 - 16:35

yes, good point, you're right: Agreed. And the PM and major ministers of course would normally stand in a constituency where they can't possibly lose, so their case doesn't really matter anyway (except that it highlights the really big problem of a constituency system: that if you live in a safe seat but personally don't subscribe to the party that keeps getting elected, you may as well draw Donald Duck on your ballot paper for all the influence it will have. I'm not sure that there's a perfect way to do democracy. It'd still be nice to have something with a bit of flavour of proportional representation about it?)

 

On tin-pot country, no, I don't subscribe to that view at all. The UK has a hugely influential history. On the bad side, we are by far the most effective pirates the world has ever seen, building an empire on the destruction of Dutch trading efforts, on plundering the Spanish, and on colonizing anyone who looked useful, and we became world leaders in the field of abusive employment by replacing slaves with indentured workers. The Vikings have nothing on us, and even the Romans would be impressed. But on the good side, we spread administrative systems, transport and technology across the world, systems that built the modern world; we were the cradle of the industrial revolution, leaders in improved agricultural efficiency, and we have a history of being a creative nation and a melting-pot of culture. I worry that the right-wing traditionalists are too busy looking in the mirror, a selective, distorted, and backward view of a glorious past, when in fact we should be reinventing ourselves for a new future - and thinking what it could be. Seizing the Spanish galleon is no longer a way to deal with the national debt. Beating up the Dutch won't improve our finances. The Americas don't trade on the same basis any more. Can you run a whole country on the financial services industry? How much real income does real-estate inflation generate? We've still got an amazing high-tech workforce and great creativity - it'd be lovely to see more people looking forward to how we can deploy that to make the UK a better place both for ourselves and for our neighbours. Too much thinking at the moment is too small-minded (can we negotiate a better deal on buying plastic widgets from China inside the EU or out?) rather than truly creative (is there anything unique and amazing that we can do or make, that the Chinese and others might want?). We have to accept that the world has changed, and we're a small country with limited resources; the empire is over. Our credit rating is stretched and our economics are dodgy. It's easy to run around looking for scapegoats to blame (and perhaps some of them deserve it). But ultimately our future is in our hands; in the end, it isn't going to be Brexit that decides whether the UK is any good or not. It's what we do, regardless of whether we Remain or Leave.


  • 1

#738 hummingbird

hummingbird

    Prodigy

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1927 posts
  • Member: 491056
    Joined: 25-July 12

Posted 12 November 2019 - 17:55

 

 

On the bad side, we are by far the most effective pirates the world has ever seen, building an empire on the destruction of Dutch trading efforts, on plundering the Spanish, and on colonizing anyone who looked useful

Where I take issue whenever anyone censures the UK for its past exploits is not that we didn't do it - of course we did, and by today's standards it seems utterly bizarre - but those doing the censuring never seem to censure all the other European countries that were doing it as well.  Spain, Portugal, France, Holland, Germany, Italy, Belgium - they all took part in colonisation around the globe.  Where the UK differs from all the other nations, is that most of the countries we colonised subsequently achieved peaceful independence (unlike the Algerians, for instance, who lost a third of their population fighting to gain independence from France) and subsequently have chosen to join the British Commonwealth so presumably they themselves don't bear a grudge about the fact that we were a colonial power over a century ago.  Looking back to our former Empire is typically how many Remainers like to see the Brexiteers but I don't relate to that at all, and nor do my Brexit friends.  Unlike what some Remainers would like to believe, it's the future we're concerned with, and we believe our future will be better outside the EU. 


  • 2

#739 elemimele

elemimele

    Prodigy

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1325 posts
  • Member: 895612
    Joined: 17-July 16

Posted 12 November 2019 - 21:56

yes, I should have put that on the plus side too: we did pioneer the relatively-peaceful dismantling of an empire, which is no mean feat. And being the best pirates isn't to say we didn't have stiff competition. A Portuguese friend of mine summed up the imperial operations of his country and mine quite pithily: "You left your administration, we left our genes".

Yes, although I am a remainer, I have a lot of respect for the brexiteers. There have been plenty of good reasons to vote Brexit as well as plenty of good reasons behind Remain. My ideal is that whichever way it goes, we take into consideration the valid concerns of everyone. The point of this is to do what's right, not to humiliate the other side.


  • 0

#740 thara96

thara96

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 308 posts
  • Member: 898080
    Joined: 04-August 17
  • UK

Posted 13 November 2019 - 08:33

I am not voting but I am still interested to see what happens next! 


  • 0

#741 mel2

mel2

    Virtuoso

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4996 posts
  • Member: 6928
    Joined: 15-May 06
  • East Yorkshire

Posted 13 November 2019 - 09:20

I am not voting but I am still interested to see what happens next!


That's a pity. (Unless you are under-age, of course)
Haven't you been persuaded by any of the arguments?
  • 1

#742 thara96

thara96

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 308 posts
  • Member: 898080
    Joined: 04-August 17
  • UK

Posted 13 November 2019 - 12:30

 

I am not voting but I am still interested to see what happens next!


That's a pity. (Unless you are under-age, of course)
Haven't you been persuaded by any of the arguments?

 

 

 

I am not voting but I am still interested to see what happens next!


That's a pity. (Unless you are under-age, of course)
Haven't you been persuaded by any of the arguments?

 

Honestly I am not sure who to vote for now.. I am not underage I just get confused by politics. 


  • 1

#743 elemimele

elemimele

    Prodigy

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1325 posts
  • Member: 895612
    Joined: 17-July 16

Posted 13 November 2019 - 13:37

in the current situation, there is no shame in that admission! I'm thoroughly confused.


  • 0

#744 mel2

mel2

    Virtuoso

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4996 posts
  • Member: 6928
    Joined: 15-May 06
  • East Yorkshire

Posted 13 November 2019 - 13:59

Indeed. As I remarked a few pages back, traditional party allegiances don't necessarily sit well with or fit our current dilemmas.

Buzz phrases appear from time to time. In my house we play 'Let's Be Clear' bingo; every time we hear a politician say it, we mark our card.
Not so long ago the buzz phrase was 'tough decisions'; I guess for many the upcoming election will cause much head scratching and weighing of options.
  • 0

#745 Arundodonuts

Arundodonuts

    Virtuoso

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6247 posts
  • Member: 30881
    Joined: 14-May 08
  • Stockport

Posted 13 November 2019 - 14:01

There have been plenty of good reasons to vote Brexit 

Sorry to appear so negative, but I must have blinked and missed them. The £60billion a year drop in GDP may have diverted my attention.


  • 2

#746 Rach123

Rach123

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 932 posts
  • Member: 244658
    Joined: 20-April 11
  • Colchester, Essex

Posted 13 November 2019 - 14:02


I am not voting but I am still interested to see what happens next!


That's a pity. (Unless you are under-age, of course)
Haven't you been persuaded by any of the arguments?

 

Honestly I am not sure who to vote for now.. I am not underage I just get confused by politics. 

I'm the same. Utterly confused by the whole thing (but I vote every time usually leaving it until the day to actually decide)


  • 0

#747 hummingbird

hummingbird

    Prodigy

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1927 posts
  • Member: 491056
    Joined: 25-July 12

Posted 13 November 2019 - 15:12

 

There have been plenty of good reasons to vote Brexit 

Sorry to appear so negative, but I must have blinked and missed them. The £60billion a year drop in GDP may have diverted my attention.

 

If you're referring to the IFS claim in October, what they actually said was the UK economy was £60 billion smaller than it would have been if we had stayed in the EU.  The IFS obviously has special powers of clairvoyance if it knows what would have happened in this alternative scenario.  Mind you, they've been predicting recession for the last 3 years - they must be gutted that it hasn't happened ;)


  • 0

#748 elemimele

elemimele

    Prodigy

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1325 posts
  • Member: 895612
    Joined: 17-July 16

Posted 13 November 2019 - 17:41

Like I said, I'm a Remainer, so I think the negatives (far) outweigh the positives. But I do genuinely respect many of those who voted Brexit. I think there is some convincing evidence of corruption and misuse of money in Europe, subsidies going to people whom I'd rather not subsidise, that sort of thing. But then, as a remainer, I think our own politicians are equally dreadful, if not worse (duck-house, anyone?). I also respect those who believed inaccurate data. I'm certain a lot of older people, dependent on the NHS, were swayed by Boris' bus. Their vote was well-intentioned and meaningful, but in my view, they were misled. I am less happy with those who seem to have chosen their position because it places them at the centre of the stage and gives them a chance to make a big political name for themselves.

 

Also, to be fair, a lot of people probably voted Brexit because David Cameron asked them to vote remain, a man who they regarded as an out-of-touch upper-class whatever, running an out-of-touch upper-class government, that didn't care tuppence about their part of the country, their poverty-stricken, high-unemployment town, and who offered them no hope for the future. They wanted to give him a good kicking (metaphorically at least), and their lives were such a mess they were prepared to press the hyperspace button, the button that simply changes everything, on the grounds that any change must surely give them something better than the mess they were in. They didn't like politicians, and Brexit gave them a chance to say so (and even get rid of the European flavour of politician) I don't blame them at all. The irony is, they've landed up with Rees-Mogg claiming superior intellect, and feigning boredom on the benches, instead of David Cameron.

 

Whether we leave or stay, we really do have to get along with one another. There are a lot of detailed problems underlying the whole of Brexit; problems in Europe and problems in the UK. Unless someone starts to tackle them, Brexit will just be one of many political crises.

 

(sorry, this was one of my more outspoken posts. I don't want to offend anyone, honestly)


  • 3

#749 Arundodonuts

Arundodonuts

    Virtuoso

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6247 posts
  • Member: 30881
    Joined: 14-May 08
  • Stockport

Posted 13 November 2019 - 17:55

No, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

https://journals.sag...795011925000103

 

"according to our estimate, GDP will be 3% per cent smaller each year in perpetuity than it would have been had the UK stayed an EU member".

 

Their figures for reduction in GDP are lower than the government's own report in 2018 (4.9%). I believe the Chancellor has declined to update this figure.


  • 0

#750 hummingbird

hummingbird

    Prodigy

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1927 posts
  • Member: 491056
    Joined: 25-July 12

Posted 13 November 2019 - 19:11

No, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

https://journals.sag...795011925000103

 

"according to our estimate, GDP will be 3% per cent smaller each year in perpetuity than it would have been had the UK stayed an EU member".

As I said, nobody knows what the economy might have been under a different set of circumstances, and to make a forecast as to what might happen "in perpetuity" makes their claim even less credible.  It's problematic enough to forecast what will happen to the economy in the foreseeable future, but to claim to know what would have happened "in perpetuity" destroys any lingering vestige of credibility.

 

Why not look at actual figures instead of "retro estimated forecasts"?  Germany is the largest economy in the EU, followed by the UK and France, and those other two countries didn't perform very well last year either, with GDP growth being 1.5% and 1.7% respectively (the UK being 1.4%).   Which still isn't as bad as one of the other major global economies - Japan, whose GDP growth last year was only 0.8%. 

 

What's more, Germany has been teetering on the brink of recession for the last two quarters, and figures being released tomorrow will show whether it's recovered or actually fallen off the cliff edge. Both the IFS and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research predicted prior to the referendum that the UK would go straight into recession if we left - so much for their accuracy in forecasting ;) - and much as some remainers give the impression that they would like to see the UK fall into recession so that they can say "I told you so", it hasn't happened, and whether it happens or not, nobody would know whether it had happened because of leaving the EU, or because of the uncertainty of the last 3.5 years, or because of the global/US economy, or some other reason or combination of reasons.


  • 0